Notes on changing “isms”
I was born into semi
feudalism, was a small child in fascism, grew up in communism, and then studied
and worked and raised a family and retired in capitalism.
Fascism ended by starting and then losing the Second World War. Communism of the Soviet-type
lost and died by not being able to compete with American capitalism. A new
version of communism is practiced in China and it is currently gaining more and
more momentum. They practice the totalitarian political authority of the
Communist Party much like the Soviet Union did, but pursue an economy much like
American capitalism. In fact, China now
mostly looks like crony capitalism, probably beyond that what is practiced in
the USA. Thus, the Chinese version of
capitalism, or capitalistic communism, or communistic capitalism, is still
growing. But it still has a way to grow before it catches up with American
capitalism, according to the traditional measures of progress based on a nation's wealth, military power, and technical
innovations. In many ways, China is still copying the USA, but it is rapidly
moving forward and can be expected to catch up in the not very distant future.
America is still the
number one Global power. It is still the leader in global innovation and
provides its citizens with one of the highest living standards available
anywhere on the Globe. Nevertheless, there are significant signs that not
everything is well. In the course of the last quarter of a century, and
possibly even somewhat longer, significant income inequality has developed. Unprecedented wealth has been accumulated by the richest
members of society, while the median income has not moved, and the lower-income
members of American society have seen their incomes progressively
decline.
The growing inequality is not a purely American phenomenon. As China's economy grew, equality in China has been growing too, and as measured by the Gini index, it now exceeds that in the USA. (https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/rankings)
The growing inequality is not a purely American phenomenon. As China's economy grew, equality in China has been growing too, and as measured by the Gini index, it now exceeds that in the USA. (https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/rankings)
In all societies of traditional “isms”
labor was essential, the social-economic system recognized its importance and
at various times it rewarded it, sometimes well. Possibly the best period for
labor in America, and probably anywhere in all human history, was the first two
decades, or so, after the Second World War in the USA.* In the post-war years
traditional industries in America operated in full swing. Coal mining, steel,
construction, and pretty much all traditional industries were doing well, and
labor enjoyed the benefits accorded them for their efforts. Much of the income
and job security that labor enjoyed during that period may have been the result
of strong unions representing them. In any case, during that post-war period, American society recognized the value of labor. Then things began to change. First
globalization, supported and driven by new developments in transportation and
communications, moved much of the labor needed to make things offshore from
America. Then technological changes started to obviate much of the traditional
need for labor. Much needed environmental mandates and the cost-effective
evolution of renewable energy resources are rendering coal mining part of history fulfilling no economic need.
Automation and AI are progressively replacing labor in most manufacturing
industries. Construction is also changing. I met an SW programmer, someone who
studied in a junior college and first became a master welder in the building
industries. Then one day his boss called him in and told him that he either
goes back to school and learns how to program automated welders or he can go
off on unemployment to look for opportunities elsewhere. Obviously, he accepted
the offer to go back to school and became a programmer. First, he programmed
welders welding steel-reinforced structures, then eventually left the building
industries and when I met him, he was programming for a publisher.
Currently, people studying the STEM professions (science, technology,
engineering, and mathematics), are faring reasonably well. Especially with
advanced degrees and working in the areas of high current demand, these
professionals can earn a very good living and become part of the upper few
percent on the income scale. Also, individuals who by lucky coincidence think
of a breakthrough idea, are in the right place and have the right contacts, and
the needed capabilities fare extremely well and in fact, they are the ones who occupy
the upper fractional percent on the income and wealth scale. As the well-known
founders of well-known tech companies have shown, it is nowadays possible to
earn not only millions of dollars but also a billion per year, year after year.
In this ongoing process that rewards a few winners, most members of society are left
behind, and their services become superfluous more and more.
Thus, we are now moving in a direction of historical social
evolution where traditional labor is progressively becoming unnecessary, and thus
it is unlikely to be rewarded.
With continuous technological development, especially that
of robotics and AI, what is now true for labor will likely be true also for
most professions. Thus no one will be safe for a lifetime holding onto and
deploying learned useful skills. What is already true for most people in our
society, will be true for all of us soon.
We must, need to, invent new social concepts such that human
dignity and the right to life and well-being are still recognized and guaranteed when no
one's skills and commitment to hard work can be assumed to be needed for a lifetime. With our automated
activities we will be able to produce enough to feed, house, and in general
maintain all humans who may be living close to a full century, without most
people participating in activities that provide the means for meeting these
needs.
Of course, I assume that we will have managed successfully
the evolving environmental crisis of our own creation. While solving the
environmental problems is very difficult, we do have a reasonably good idea of how
to do it. We need the political will and society’s commitment to complete this
task. The social restructuring that is necessary to establish a new more
egalitarian society is a different story. How to organize a new “labor-less” society, and how to share and distribute the goods that are produced by this automated society
is something nobody yet knows, and certainly, I do not have any clear idea even how
to approach it. But it must be done. Unless we do it the world will face
cataclysmic events that we have never seen before in our history. And these cataclysmic events will certainly
lead to the end of history as we know it, if not to the end of mankind.
*Note
While for labor the decades following the Second World War
may have been the best, ever and anywhere, American society did not practice
integrated inclusivity then. Strong and at times very violent discrimination according
to race and gender preferences was practiced. In the 1950s and 60s, it would
have been inconceivable to elect an African American to be president. In 2008
that is exactly what happened when Barack Obama was elected to be the first
African American president of the United States. The first black Supreme Court
Justice, Thurgood Marshall was appointed to the Supreme Court 22 years after
the end of World War 2, in the same year that the first black senator since
Reconstruction was elected to the US Congress. Currently, we have four African Americans
serving in the US Senate. The explicit discriminatory practices in the 1950s and
early 60s (up until the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964), widely
practiced nationwide but especially in some of the southern states, e.g.
Alabama and Mississippi, would be inconceivable and are bordering on the
incomprehensible today. We now have officeholders and candidates for the
highest offices in the country who are Hispanics, Blacks, Asian Americans, as
well as Whites. We also have openly gay and transgender candidates and high
officeholders. - - It is a surprising fact that as labor lost out
and income inequality exploded, American society has become more inclusive. Is
this a law of human behavior, is it part of our nature? I do not know, and I do
not think that it matters much. It is an observable fact. But it is also an
observable fact that as society has become more inclusive, populism (another
“ism”), drawing on our discriminatory lower instincts, has become a
recognizable significant force in our political theater. As most of us enjoy
giving and receiving greater inclusivity, some of us feel left out and focus on
excluding those who we feel are responsible for us being left out.
