Changing "isms"

Notes on changing “isms”

I was born into semi feudalism, was a small child in fascism, grew up in communism, and then studied and worked and raised a family and retired in capitalism.

Fascism ended by starting and then losing the Second World War. Communism of the Soviet-type lost and died by not being able to compete with American capitalism. A new version of communism is practiced in China and it is currently gaining more and more momentum. They practice the totalitarian political authority of the Communist Party much like the Soviet Union did, but pursue an economy much like American capitalism. In fact,  China now mostly looks like crony capitalism, probably beyond that what is practiced in the USA.  Thus, the Chinese version of capitalism, or capitalistic communism, or communistic capitalism, is still growing. But it still has a way to grow before it catches up with American capitalism, according to the traditional measures of progress based on a nation's wealth, military power, and technical innovations. In many ways, China is still copying the USA, but it is rapidly moving forward and can be expected to catch up in the not very distant future. 

America is still the number one Global power. It is still the leader in global innovation and provides its citizens with one of the highest living standards available anywhere on the Globe. Nevertheless, there are significant signs that not everything is well.  In the course of the last quarter of a century, and possibly even somewhat longer, significant income inequality has developed. Unprecedented wealth has been accumulated by the richest members of society, while the median income has not moved, and the lower-income members of American society have seen their incomes progressively decline. 

The growing inequality is not a purely American phenomenon. As China's economy grew, equality in China has been growing too, and as measured by the Gini index, it now exceeds that in the USA. (https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/rankings)

In all societies of traditional “isms” labor was essential, the social-economic system recognized its importance and at various times it rewarded it, sometimes well. Possibly the best period for labor in America, and probably anywhere in all human history, was the first two decades, or so, after the Second World War in the USA.* In the post-war years traditional industries in America operated in full swing. Coal mining, steel, construction, and pretty much all traditional industries were doing well, and labor enjoyed the benefits accorded them for their efforts. Much of the income and job security that labor enjoyed during that period may have been the result of strong unions representing them. In any case, during that post-war period, American society recognized the value of labor. Then things began to change. First globalization, supported and driven by new developments in transportation and communications, moved much of the labor needed to make things offshore from America. Then technological changes started to obviate much of the traditional need for labor. Much needed environmental mandates and the cost-effective evolution of renewable energy resources are rendering coal mining part of history fulfilling no economic need. Automation and AI are progressively replacing labor in most manufacturing industries. Construction is also changing. I met an SW programmer, someone who studied in a junior college and first became a master welder in the building industries. Then one day his boss called him in and told him that he either goes back to school and learns how to program automated welders or he can go off on unemployment to look for opportunities elsewhere. Obviously, he accepted the offer to go back to school and became a programmer. First, he programmed welders welding steel-reinforced structures, then eventually left the building industries and when I met him, he was programming for a publisher.

Currently, people studying the STEM professions (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), are faring reasonably well. Especially with advanced degrees and working in the areas of high current demand, these professionals can earn a very good living and become part of the upper few percent on the income scale. Also, individuals who by lucky coincidence think of a breakthrough idea, are in the right place and have the right contacts, and the needed capabilities fare extremely well and in fact, they are the ones who occupy the upper fractional percent on the income and wealth scale. As the well-known founders of well-known tech companies have shown, it is nowadays possible to earn not only millions of dollars but also a billion per year, year after year. In this ongoing process that rewards a few winners, most members of society are left behind, and their services become superfluous more and more.

Thus, we are now moving in a direction of historical social evolution where traditional labor is progressively becoming unnecessary, and thus it is unlikely to be rewarded.

With continuous technological development, especially that of robotics and AI, what is now true for labor will likely be true also for most professions. Thus no one will be safe for a lifetime holding onto and deploying learned useful skills. What is already true for most people in our society, will be true for all of us soon.

We must, need to, invent new social concepts such that human dignity and the right to life and well-being are still recognized and guaranteed when no one's skills and commitment to hard work can be assumed to be needed for a lifetime. With our automated activities we will be able to produce enough to feed, house, and in general maintain all humans who may be living close to a full century, without most people participating in activities that provide the means for meeting these needs.

Of course, I assume that we will have managed successfully the evolving environmental crisis of our own creation. While solving the environmental problems is very difficult, we do have a reasonably good idea of how to do it. We need the political will and society’s commitment to complete this task. The social restructuring that is necessary to establish a new more egalitarian society is a different story. How to organize a new “labor-less” society, and how to share and distribute the goods that are produced by this automated society is something nobody yet knows, and certainly, I do not have any clear idea even how to approach it. But it must be done. Unless we do it the world will face cataclysmic events that we have never seen before in our history.  And these cataclysmic events will certainly lead to the end of history as we know it, if not to the end of mankind.

*Note

While for labor the decades following the Second World War may have been the best, ever and anywhere, American society did not practice integrated inclusivity then. Strong and at times very violent discrimination according to race and gender preferences was practiced. In the 1950s and 60s, it would have been inconceivable to elect an African American to be president. In 2008 that is exactly what happened when Barack Obama was elected to be the first African American president of the United States. The first black Supreme Court Justice, Thurgood Marshall was appointed to the Supreme Court 22 years after the end of World War 2, in the same year that the first black senator since Reconstruction was elected to the US Congress.  Currently, we have four African Americans serving in the US Senate. The explicit discriminatory practices in the 1950s and early 60s (up until the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964), widely practiced nationwide but especially in some of the southern states, e.g. Alabama and Mississippi, would be inconceivable and are bordering on the incomprehensible today. We now have officeholders and candidates for the highest offices in the country who are Hispanics, Blacks, Asian Americans, as well as Whites. We also have openly gay and transgender candidates and high officeholders.  - -  It is a surprising fact that as labor lost out and income inequality exploded, American society has become more inclusive. Is this a law of human behavior, is it part of our nature? I do not know, and I do not think that it matters much. It is an observable fact. But it is also an observable fact that as society has become more inclusive, populism (another “ism”), drawing on our discriminatory lower instincts, has become a recognizable significant force in our political theater. As most of us enjoy giving and receiving greater inclusivity, some of us feel left out and focus on excluding those who we feel are responsible for us being left out.